The North American smartphone market could be headed for a dismal 2025
In some ways, 2024 was among the best years for smartphones in a very long time. Whilst you may pick a number of different improvements made in earlier years, 2024 marked an essential yr the place telephones debuted extra eye-friendly shows, lastly adopted years of promised software program updates, received overheating beneath management, and shifted to extra consumer-friendly practices as finest. repairability.
However I am unsure 2025 might be pretty much as good. The patent dispute between Samsung and BOE is heating up, threatening to ban BOE shows right here in the US. For me, that is notably regarding as a result of Samsung’s AMOLED panels normally use PWM dimming, which supplies me complications and makes long-term use of most of these screens unimaginable, whereas BOE panels are rather more eye-friendly.
We’re additionally seeing design convergence going again to the “iPhone is the most effective” mannequin amongst OEMs, one thing that hasn’t occurred en masse for a really very long time. I do not simply imply the extremely flat {hardware} design. Samsung’s upcoming OneUI 7 seems extra iPhoney than ever, and firms are slowly introducing iPhone mockups like notification shade and Dynamic Island to Android telephones within the newest software program updates.
Positive, a few of these developments are constructive, however they may largely imply that the most effective telephones of 2025 all find yourself feeling and looking the identical in North America, and that is one thing I would relatively keep away from.
Be collectively, not the identical
Smartphones in North America – particularly the US – are primarily bought via one’s service of alternative. Whether or not it is Verizon, AT&T, T-Cell, or one of many many smaller carriers or MVNOs, carriers are sometimes essentially the most inexpensive option to get a brand new telephone. Due to this, American prospects primarily purchase from 4 manufacturers: Apple, Samsung, Google and Motorola.
In line with Counterpoint Analysis, lower than 10% of American shoppers purchase from different manufacturers, a direct facet impact of this shopping for sample. As such, firms like Nothing, CMF, OnePlus, Nuu, Blu and several other others discover it tough to make important income. Most China-based OEMS like vivo, Xiaomi, Oppo, and Honor aren’t even formally offered within the US, additional complicating issues, however extra on that in a bit.
As soon as upon a time, Android’s slogan was “Be collectively, not the identical.” It proved some extent that Android telephones might all look totally different, however they share the identical core expertise and apps, giving customers actual alternative with out sacrificing the apps or companies they love.
From the rumored Samsung Galaxy S25 to the just lately launched Google Pixel 9 sequence, many telephones now look identical to the iPhone.
Trying ahead to the 2025 North American smartphone market reveals fewer selections than ever, and even some gamers available in the market appear to be coalescing round a masterful {hardware} design language that feels uninspired and completely utilitarian. From the rumored Galaxy S25 to the just lately launched Pixel 9 sequence, many telephones now look identical to an iPhone.
Many individuals appear to choose the flat entrance glass on their telephones, if for no different cause than it makes it simpler to discover a tempered glass display protector. Sadly, most Android telephones within the U.S. have (or could have) ultrasonic fingerprint sensors in 2025, that are typically sooner and extra correct — although that relies upon loads on the particular person.
The issue is that many tempered glass display protectors render the ultrasonic fingerprint sensors ineffective. They only do not work in any respect when a defender is excessive. Appears to defeat the purpose, does not it?
This makes product testing extra essential than ever, particularly because the largest benefit of a flat display is that it makes it simpler so as to add a display protector. No fashionable Android telephone does superior facial recognition since Google tried to carry again the Pixel 4 line, so a superb fingerprint sensor efficiency is extraordinarily essential for a superb person expertise.
I am not satisfied that the present trajectory of {hardware} design is solely a superb factor, however that is why we now have to have alternate options. OnePlus and Motorola proceed to be the most important alternate options accessible to Samsung, Google and Apple, which is a superb factor, contemplating the massive three aren’t prioritizing eye well being as a lot as they need to.
A number of new entrants into the extra inexpensive telephone market in 2024 have me assured within the sector for 2025. Nuu and CMF each made incredible entries beneath $300, bringing again the sensation that you could nonetheless purchase a superb telephone with out spending $500, $1000 or much more. My hope is that these two firms – plus a number of others – proceed this trajectory via 2025 and buck the pattern of costlier telephones.
China coefficient
The US authorities continues to wage financial conflict towards China, and with that, a wave of recent tariffs and bans is anticipated to return in 2025. Whereas that is engaging from a “home” perspective, the issue is that just about the entire actual competitors for Google, Samsung and Apple is from China. Lenovo, a China-based firm, owns Motorola. BBK, a China-based group, owns OnePlus.
From my perspective, the 2 finest hopes listed here are Nothing – in addition to Nothing’s sub-brand CMF – and Nuu. Nothing is predicated in London, and Nuu is predicated in Hong Kong. There are different manufacturers that would supply good alternate options after an entire product ban in China, however these two are the gems that shine, in my estimation.
From what I can inform proper now, a “full ban” is not going to occur, however I absolutely anticipate worth hikes for telephones from Chinese language manufacturers, particularly within the US.
Since these firms are among the many few that maintain costs low, I might hope that lawmakers would take into consideration different financial penalties earlier than enacting sweeping laws.
Higher efficiency than ever
For too lengthy, Android has been one thing of a “second-class citizen” in the case of efficiency towards Apple’s silicon. Final yr’s Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 was the closest we have ever been to Apple-like efficiency in Android telephones, and the Snapdragon 8 Elite in upcoming 2025 telephones is a primary EVER that we have seen Snapdragon chips eclipse Apple’s newest in most metrics.
That is past thrilling, to say the least, and was achieved by unifying Qualcomm’s chipsets in cellphones and laptops. In different phrases, we’re getting laptop-level efficiency from our flagship telephones in 2025. Now that is a large enchancment!
| Row 0 – Cell 0 | A nuclear one | Multicore |
| Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 | 2144 | 6698 |
| Snapdragon 8 Elite | 3236 | 10049 |
| Apple A18 (iPhone 16) | 3429 | 8790 |
The Tensor G5 may lastly carry the Pixels the efficiency increase they wanted in 2025.
Not solely that, however Qualcomm is alleged to have completed a greater job of conserving phrases beneath management whereas delivering higher efficiency. The final two instances we noticed a giant change in naming conference and processor design – that is the Snapdragon 810 and Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 – issues did not go so properly and the chips commonly overheated. Based mostly on what we all know, the third time appears to be the appeal for Qualcomm.
Google Pixel telephones will lastly get a giant efficiency improve in 2025, too, if the Tensor G5 leaks are something to go by. It has been mentioned for years that Google might be transferring to TSMC for the Tensor G5 as an alternative of utilizing Samsung cores, and that the G5 is the primary “absolutely customized” Tensor chip.
Earlier generations have been constructed on Exynos know-how and it commonly felt that method. The efficiency of the Tensor G4 within the Pixel 9 sequence is just like the Snapdragon 8 Gen 1, which, as you possibly can guess, is now a full 3 generations behind what Qualcomm simply launched.
The way forward for foldable telephones
Lastly, I needed to cowl the state of foldable telephones and what 2025 holds for them. We have already seen rumors {that a} main participant is pulling out of the foldable telephone class. Fewer gamers is all the time worse for the competitors, however foldable telephones stay a comparatively small a part of even the most important telephone makers’ earnings statements, so it isn’t too shocking to see an organization which may pull again.
From my perspective, foldable telephones are already nice and 2024 proved to be the most effective yr for this section. Whereas we did not get a follow-up to the OnePlus Open, the Pixel 9 Professional Fold and Honor Magic V3 stunned me in the most effective methods.
2024 was an important yr for foldable telephones, however with one participant rumored to be leaving the house, 2025 is feeling a little bit unsure.
Alternatively, Motorola continues to impress with its Razr reboot. Motorola has persistently delivered nice {hardware} design, glorious battery life, surprisingly good cameras, and the most effective flip telephone software program in the marketplace, plus a renewed dedication to offering long-term updates.
General, although, I am not feeling higher about 2025, even when there are nonetheless some vibrant spots right here within the US market. Carriers proceed to have a stranglehold on the nation’s telephone distribution methods, and smaller gamers are discovering it onerous to get within the door due to it. If there may be any change wanted right here, it’ll assist get individuals away from service dependency so we will have higher selections for cell gadgets.
